Saturday, April 29, 2006

Microsoft

My current entrepreneurial and blogging efforts will be drawing to a close over the next two weeks since I have accepted an offer from Microsoft to be a Software Design Engineer in Test (SDE/T), developing tests and software tools for testing in the Cellular Core team of the Mobile and Embedded Devices Product Group (MEDPG) in Redmond. That includes the low-level software that goes into smartphones and other gadgets based on Windows CE.

I may eventually resume some amount of blogging in some form, but probably not for some time since I expect it will take 250% of my effort just to come up to speed and get at least slightly ahead of the curve over the next six months.

Oh, and since I'll be joining "The Evil Empire", please... pray for my soul! The world may no longer be safe with me on Microsoft's side.

-- Jack Krupansky

Monday, April 24, 2006

Stock market commentary for Tuesday, April 25, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Tuesday, April 25, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

Note: I won't be posting columns for Wednesday, Thursday, and probably Friday due to travel for an all-day job interview on Wednesday. My apologies.

-- Jack Krupansky

Venture capital investment by state

From the Dow Jones VentureOne/Ernst & Young LLP Quarterly Venture Capital Report for Q1, here are the U.S. states ranked by amount of venture capital invested in Q1:

  1. California $2.62 billion
  2. Massachusetts $976 million
  3. New York $402 million
  4. Washington $310 million
  5. Texas $247 million
  6. Pennsylvania $245 million
  7. New Jersey $139 million
  8. Colorado $107 million
  9. Maryland $101 million
  10. Illinois $97 million
  11. North Carolina $94 million
  12. Georgia $80 million
  13. Missouri $75 million
  14. Utah $63 million
  15. Connecticut $62 million
  16. Minnesota $56 million
  17. Virginia $52 million
  18. Florida $46 million
  19. Arizona $37 million
  20. New Hampshire $36 million
  21. Michigan $32 million
  22. Indiana $31 million
  23. Oregon $25 million
  24. No state listed $18 million
  25. District of Columbia $12 million
  26. Hawaii $11 million
  27. Kansas $10 million
  28. New Mexico $8 million
  29. Wisconsin $7 million
  30. Wyoming $7 million
  31. Oklahoma $3 million
  32. Vermont $3 million
  33. Tennessee $2 million
  34. Ohio $2 million
  35. South Carolina $2 million
  36. Arkansas $2 million
  37. States with no listed investmentsL: Alabama, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, West Virginia

The survey data was obtained from professional venture capital firms that have invested in U.S.-based early-stage, innovative companies and do not include companies receiving funding solely from corporate, individual, and/or government investors.

Please note that there are companies receiving investments who are operating in so-called stealth mode, and don't show up in publicly-available statistics, but it is believed that such investments represent a small fraction of the total professional venture capital investments.

-- Jack Krupansky

Venture capital investment statistics for Q1

The Dow Jones VentureOne/Ernst & Young LLP Quarterly Venture Capital Report for Q1 registered a moderate rise (+7.0% vs. -9.9% last quarter) in the amount of money invested from Q4, and a very sharp rise (+18.0% vs. +14.0% last quarter) from Q1 a year ago in equity investment in U.S.-based companies who have received at least one round of venture funding from a surveyed professional venture capital firm. This was a positive report. Please note that these numbers don't include either "angel" investments or "buyouts" or so-called "stealth" investments.

Information technology (IT) continues to get the lion share of investment (56%) compared to distant second healthcare (27%). There was a very sharp rise (+17.7% vs. -16.7% last quarter) in the amount invested in information technology companies since last quarter, and a sharp rise (+12.8% vs. -10.9% last quarter) compared to a year ago.

Computer software continues to be the largest sub-sector, with 23.0% (vs. 23.1% last quarter) of the money invested in Q1 and 41.1% (vs. 42.7% last quarter) of the IT money invested in Q1, and rose +9.9% (vs. -5.6% last quarter) from Q4 but fell -8.5% (vs. -11.7% last quarter) from a year ago. The bottom line is that a healthy amount of money is being invested in new ventures, but it's not what could be called a real "boom".

Later stage deals received 52% (vs. 49% last quarter) of the money and seed and first stage deals received only 21% (vs. 22% last quarter) of the money.

The dozen largest deals were:

  1. Amp'd Mobile ($150 million), provider of integrated mobile entertainment services for youth, young professionals, and early adopters
  2. ITA Software ($100 million), developer of travel industry pricing and connectivity software
  3. Take Care Health Systems ($77 million), provider of healthcare services in clinics located in high volume stores of national retail pharmacy chains
  4. Microbia ($75 million), developer of drug candidates for the treatment of gastrointestinal disorders, dyslipidemia, pain, and fungal infections
  5. Merrimack Pharmaceuticals ($65 million), discoverer and developer of drugs for the treatment of diseases in the areas of autoimmune disease and cancer
  6. Optasite, Inc. ($60 million), provider of wireless infrastructure solutions
  7. Pay By Touch ($60 million), provider of biometric authentication, payment, loyalty, and membership solutions
  8. Cadence Pharmaceuticals ($53.8 million), developer of specialty pharmaceuticals utilized primarily in the hospital setting
  9. Artes Medical ($50.7 million), developer of medical technology focused on the development of products for the plastic surgery, cosmetic surgery, and dermatology markets
  10. Insulet ($50 million), developer of disposable drug delivery devices for the treatment of diabetes
  11. MovieBeam ($48.5 million), provider of movies-on-demand with instant access to new releases and popular favorites from major Hollywood studios
  12. Sling Media ($46.6 million), provider of a device that allows people to watch cable and satellite TV on their laptops or cell phones.

The survey data was obtained from professional venture capital firms that have invested in U.S.-based early-stage, innovative companies and do not include companies receiving funding solely from corporate, individual, and/or government investors.

Please note that there are companies receiving investments who are operating in so-called stealth mode, and don't show up in publicly-available statistics, but it is believed that such investments represent a small fraction of the total professional venture capital investments.

-- Jack Krupansky

Stock market commentary for Monday, April 24, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Monday, April 24, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

Note: I won't be posting columns for Wednesday, Thursday, and probably Friday due to travel for an all-day job interview on Wednesday. My apologies.

-- Jack Krupansky

Friday, April 21, 2006

Stock market commentary for Saturday, April 22, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Saturday, April 22, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

The column will be updated for Monday based on any news over the weekend.

-- Jack Krupansky

Gold by the barrel?

I keep telling people that the whole commodities "boom" is quite crazy of "loupy" and that the media is not helping to provide any enlightenment. To wit, I just saw this single-line report on MarketWatch:

1:17 PM ET 4/21/06  JUNE GOLD LAST UP $1.11, OR 1.5%, TO TRADE AT $74.80/BRL

I have to admit that $74.80 seems an awfully cheap price for an entire barrel of gold.

And I suspect that there plenty of commodity "nuts" who think that oil is worth more than $600 an ounce.

-- Jack Krupansky

Thursday, April 20, 2006

Stock market commentary for Friday, April 21, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Friday, April 21, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky

Stock market commentary for Thursday, April 20, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Thursday, April 20, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Stock market commentary for Wednesday, April 19, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Wednesday, April 19, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

My apologies for its tardiness, but I had to run an errand late Tuesday afternoon and had a meeting in the evening that ran late. I'm expecting Thursday's column to be posted on a lot more timely basis.

-- Jack Krupansky

Monday, April 17, 2006

Stock market commentary for Monday, April 17, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Monday, April 17, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Stock market commentary for Friday, April 14, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Friday, April 14, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Stock market commentary for Thursday, April 13, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Thursday, April 13, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky

Sunday, April 09, 2006

Stock market commentary for Monday, April 10, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Monday, April 10, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky

Saturday, April 08, 2006

Is the sky about to fall?

A reader of my daily stock market commentary emailed me with his concerns that so many negative financial issues are brewing, such as rising interest rates and budget and trade deficits, that the outlook for 2006 is quite gloomy indeed. I don't quite agree. My reader's comments were articulate and well made and completely consistent with a lot of what I read in the press and from commentators, but there still seemed to be something missing. Here's my response to his email:

Thanks for your comments. My only overall response would be that "the
markets" (stock, bond, commodities) are inherently unpredictable and we
would all be wise to be quite skeptical of any *certain* predictions of how
the markets "have to be" or "will be" or "what must happen". Sometimes
things "must happen" in a long-term thematic sense, but not necessarily on a
timeframe that even the most capable experts can predict with anything even
resembling approximate certainty. Just last year, Warren Buffett was *sure*
that the dollar would decline in 2005 and now he has apologized to his
shareholders for losing $955 million (almost a billion dollars) of their
money on this bad bet.

Most of your points (all of them?) have been made many times by many people.
I don't think I read anything that wasn't an accurate rendition of what I've
read before other places. I would simply urge you to be a little less
certain in your forecasts and allow for a wider range of variability and
uncertainty.

As far as the decline on Friday, I would offer Greenspan's advice: *never*
judge the trend by the latest data point in a data series.

I try to convince people to be skeptical of the "stories" that are being
peddled by Wall Street "professionals" (including the so-called "Doom and
Gloom" crowd). By all means, decide for yourself what path you are going to
take, but do so only after sifting through as much information as you can by
yourself and staying as far away as possible from the artfully contrived
stories that get so much attention in the press and are peddled by people
with agendas, whether rosy positive or gloomy negative.

As usual for most things in life, when presented a very wide range of
alternatives, the "truth" is usually somewhere in the middle, neither as
good as promised nor as bad as warned. And even if an expected outcome does
sometimes occur (e.g., the various financial events in the fall of 1998),
the best approach is to take out a reasonable level of insurance and then
bet on what you think is the likely outcome, not what *might* conceivably,
theoretically happen.

It doesn't make sense to live every day of your life worrying that maybe
tomorrow the sky will fall. At this juncture, my best instincts and my best
reading of the data (my reading, not some "stories" peddled by people with
dubious agendas) tell me that no great financial calamity will occur this
year or next. Sure, feel free to buy some of the "insurance" that Warren
Buffett is now offering in his new market bet, but I see no justification
for going around and telling everybody that "the sky is falling" (or about
to fall) when there is essentially no evidence of that to date.

In summary, I *don't* urge you to change your outlook simply because I think
you're wrong, but simply urge you to open your own eyes a little wider,
examine more of the world around you, think more on your own, and make your
own more thoughtful conclusions. If there is one thing I am certain about,
it is that as our global economic system becomes ever more complex we need
to treat certainly with more skepticism and allow for a wider range of
uncertainty. Your message seems to have too high a level of certainty
attached to it and seems too much in-sync with a lot of the "stories" that
are being promoted these days. Show me some original thinking or truly
insightful anecdotes and maybe I'll be persuaded. Caution: LTCM failed even
though they had two esteemed Nobel laureates onboard, so be careful when
depending on any so-called "experts" will gilded credentials. Focus on
common sense, but not fear or panic.

It is a scary world and so many people got burned in 2000-2002, but that's
not a good excuse for acting like there's a monster in every closet, under
every rock, and around every corner. Life is too short for that kind of
cynicism. My advice: buy a little financial insurance, enough so you can
sleep at night, and move on and look for productive, positive bets that you
can make that will be good for society.

And if you still feel absolutely certain the markets will crash this year
(or next) and feel tempted to bet the farm on that specific outcome and
timeframe, please recall John Maynard Keynes advice (paraphrased): The
markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.

In any case, I do appreciate your comments since they do let me know how
real people are actually seeing and thinking about things.

To answer my headline question: No, the sky is not about to fall. Relax. Buy a little insurance if you want. Avoid speculative excess. Don't believe everything you read or hear. But mostly relax and find productive things to do with your life.

-- Jack Krupansky

Friday, April 07, 2006

Stock market commentary for Saturday, April 8, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Saturday, April 8, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Stock market commentary for Thursday, April 7, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Thursday, April 7, 2006, is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky

Monday, April 03, 2006

Stock market commentary for Tuesday, April 4, 2006 in now posted

My latest daily stock market commentary, for Tuesday, April 4, 2006 is now posted. Click here to read it.

-- Jack Krupansky