Saturday, February 04, 2006

The first new 30-year Treasury "long bond" is coming soon to a theater near you

Things could get crazy in the Treasuries market this week, including the yield curve, as people prepare for, participate in, and respond to the auction on Thursday, February 9 of the 30-year Treasury bond. This is the first auction of the 30-year bond since August 9, 2001. Right now, the longest duration Treasury is 25 years. I'm not even sure what the publishers of the yield curve really mean when they quote the 30-year yield.

In my personal opinion, it was always a huge mistake to drop the "long bond". It provides useful economic signals and is useful for retirement accounts. In fact, I think it makes perfect sense to go out further and have a 50-year bond. After all, someone who is 60 years old and shifting from stocks to fixed-income in preparation for retirement could very well live to be 110 years old.

In fact, if we are going to have privatized Social Security, Treasury should have 100-year bonds that young people could buy or use as a benchmark for their long-term retirement future. Sure, you may want to have part of your retirement investments in stocks, but it makes perfect sense to have at least part of it in the most stable possible long-term investment.

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Please read our Stock Market Outlook for 2006 and our Daily Stock Market Commentary.

-- Jack Krupansky

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