ECRI Weekly Leading Index indicator for future growth recovers a little but is still moderately negative

The six-month smoothed growth rate of the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) finally recovered a little (from -1.7% to -1.5%) after declining for 15 consecutive weeks (actually it declined for 14 weeks and was level for two weeks before turning up), but is still moderately negative, suggesting that the economy may be finally leveling out.

A WLI of zero (0.0) would indicate an economy that is running at a steady growth rate, neither accelerating nor decelerating. A WLI fluctuating in a range from +1.5% to -1.5% would seem to be a relatively stable "Goldilocks" economy.

Although the WLI smoothed growth rate is rather weak, it isn't showing any signs of the kind of persistent weakness (values more negative than -1.5% over a period of time) that would be seen in an economy that was slowing on its way into recession, but does look a lot like an economy moderating on its way to a relatively stable growth rate.

If I were looking at this one indicator alone, I'd say that the Fed is succeeding at its goal of moderating the economy to a sustainable growth rate.

-- Jack Krupansky