Monday, December 11, 2006

Predictions for 2007

I usually don't waste my time doing detailed "predictions" for events that will happen in the coming year, but now that I see other people doing their predictions, I've decided to revisit the reasons why predictions should be considered as well as my old reasons for refraining from them. I haven't decided to do ahead and make predictions, but I am giving the concept serious consideration.

One angle on predictions is to simply identify your niche areas of expertise and simple express that expertise.

Another angle is to pick niche areas where you wish you had expertise and make some wild guesses, and then use the results to gauge your intuitive grasp of those niches.

Actually, I just remembered that I did in fact make some predictions about the stock market and economy back on January 3, 2006. I had intended to update those predictions at mid-year, but didn't since I became a full-time employee (not one of my predictions). I haven't checked any of those predictions, but it's a couple of weeks early anyway. I suppose at a minimum that I will update those 2006 predictions for 2007.

One other thing... it may actually be more fun and enlightening to simply list out questions that you wish you could answer for the coming year. If you have suggested answers, fine, but simply asking good questions can be enlightening if not entertaining in itself.

A few:

  1. Will GM or Ford declare bankruptcy?
  2. Will Microsoft finally gain significant search market share?
  3. Will Sun be acquired?
  4. Will the Web 2.0 bubble burst?
  5. Will venture capital investment surge?
  6. Will Robert Scoble jump to another company?
  7. Will there be at least a 25% drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq?
  8. Will Iran continue to "slip the noose" that the Neoconservatives keep trying to skip over its neck?
  9. Which tech startup will zoom up to be "the new Google"?
  10. Will Apple finally begin to lose digital media player market share?
  11. Will Zune be more than an "also ran" distant number two or three?
  12. Will "global warming" become a bigger problem, or recede for at least the year?
  13. Will the dollar fall below $1.45 to the euro?
  14. Will the Fed cut interest rates, raise them, or keep them the same?
  15. Will crude oil finally hit $100 per barrel?
  16. Will speculators finally abandon commodities?
  17. Will inflation fall back below 2%, rise above 3%, or remain in the 2% to 3% range?
  18. Will GDP hit 3% in any quarter?
  19. Will there be a recession?
  20. Will there be a "mega" terrorist attack (more than 500 deaths in one attack)?
  21. Will Saddam Hussein be executed in 2007?
  22. Will the Democrats actually accomplish anything in 2007?
  23. Will blogging be an even bigger hit or sprial into a decline?
  24. What will the next big Web 2.0 technology look like?

-- Jack Krupansky


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