Saturday, June 09, 2007

Euro drifting sideways but showing some weakness

The euro continues to drift sideways in the $1.33 to $1.38 trading range. It did in fact break below the narrower  $1.34 to $1.37 range, but not dramatically enough and long enough to constitute a true breakdown. For now, the overall trend is neither up nor down, but "sideways." Euro futures closed on Friday at $1.3366, 0.86 cents below the $1.3452 level of a week ago. I strongly suspect that the recent "retreat" continues to be more of a short-term trading phenomenon and not indicative of a longer-term trend per se. I would give the euro bulls and dollar bears a few more shots at $1.37 and $1.38 over the next couple of weeks before concluding that the euro is likely to weaken for the rest of the year.

For now, the euro remains in relatively uncharted territory. It is now mostly a question of the level of speculative money flows. With some people still misguidedly believing that Fed rate cuts are still likely in the Fall, the flows could be net-euro for some time to come. On the other hand, just a few good economic reports, persistently high energy prices, strong talk from the Fed about fighting inflation, a decent Q2 GDP report in July, and a strong hint of a rate hike in August or the Fall, could quickly sap the staying power of all but the most diehard of over-extended speculators.

I wouldn't be surprised if speculators managed to keep the euro up in the $1.33 to $1.37 range for the next few weeks whenever there is any superficially bad news to focus on, but it is just as likely that they will trade it back down under $1.30 as soon as people deeply grasp the truth that the Fed is very unlikely to cut rates over the next six months.

In short, the dollar is not "plunging."

-- Jack Krupansky


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