Monday, October 15, 2007

Euro stuck in a trading range

Since running into a wall after the quite decent monthly employment report a week ago, the euro is now stuck in a trading range between $1.40 and $1.43. No longer is it "clear" that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. The December euro futures contract rose to $1.4192 on Friday from $1.4158 a week ago, a gain of 0.34 cents.

Where the euro goes from here is up in the air since we no longer have a solid consensus on what the Fed will do with interest rates, where the overall U.S. economy is headed, or how deep-pocketed the speculators are who have been pushing up the euro.

As far as where speculators think the euro may be headed, euro futures out at March 2009 were only at $1.4243 on Friday, so there isn't exactly a lot of "slam dunk" enthusiasm for betting on an aggressive ongoing upwards trend, so far.

-- Jack Krupansky

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