Half-point Fed rate cut has 88% chance

At this moment, February fed funds futures are priced at 96.9700 which corresponds to an implied fed funds target rate of 3.0300%, which implies a 100% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting the target rate by at least a quarter-point by the end of the month and an 88% chance of an additional quarter-point cut on top of that. In other words, a half-point cut is very likely.

Fed funds futures are typically fairly reliable within 45 days of an FOMC meeting.The net here is that "the market" is predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut by a half-point at the FOMC meeting next week.

Please note that all of this is subject to change, literally at a moment's notice.

-- Jack Krupansky