Intrade market indicates a 70.5% chance of recession in 2008

Trading on the Intrade Prediction Market indicates a 70.5% chance of a U.S. recession in 2008. That is not a significant change from before the negative ISM Non-Manufacturing report, suggesting that negative sentiment may have peaked in the face of a big Fed rate cut and progress on the fiscal stimulus plan.

Actually, I am a bit surprised that punters haven't bid a recession up above 90%, if they were guided by all of the negative media reports, but maybe that suggests that people are being a bit more rational and skeptical of the media than I would have otherwise expected.

We will have to ponder why almost 30% of punters are so confident that a recession will not occur. I know the reasons for my own rationale, but I am curious what the non-recession punters think.

-- Jack Krupansky