Unemployment insurance initial claims still not recessionary

Unemployment insurance initial claims did rise moderately this week, but still not to a level associated with a recession. In fact, the more-reliable four-week moving average of initial claims actually declined modestly. Net-net, there is still no sign of recession on the weekly unemployment insurance initial claims front, the front line for workers losing jobs.

Yes, the economy is quite sluggish right now, but we are still not as clearly in a recession as so many people insist.

-- Jack Krupansky