Jobless claims in no man's land

Weekly unemployment insurance initial claims are frequently used as an indicator of the health of the economy, but right now they are in no man's land, signaling neither growth nor outright recession. Usually, 400,000 is the threshold rule of thumb level indicating outright recession. This week initial claims came in at 378,000 and the more-reliable four-week moving average came in at 365,250. In all honesty, these numbers are not that bad at all, being well short of the 400,000 threshold. Yes, they are a bit elevated (from 318,000 and 324,000 a year ago), but still not a serious threat to that 400,000 threshold. Sure, numbers such as these can sometimes "hint" that maybe a recession is around the corner, but they do not indicate that a recession is here right now. That is not a guarantee that we won't have a recession or even that we are not in a recession right now, but these numbers do say that you will have to look elsewhere for evidence of a recession.

All that these numbers tell us for now is that the economy is sluggish.

 -- Jack Krupansky