A recession seems almost certain

A am no fan of the media's "objectivity" when it comes to economic analysis, the state of the economy, or the economic outlook, especially in a presidential election year when media biases become even stronger. I was reading an article in The New York Times by Michael de la Merced entitled "Buyout Industry Staggers Under Weight of Debt", which is an interesting article in its own right about the LBO industry, when the phrase "a recession seems almost certain" popped out at me. That seems to be a common theme these days, with people either absolutely convinced that we are already in a recession or that a recession is absolutely going to commence any day now. The operative word in that phrase is not "certain" or even "almost certain", but "seems." People are chattering mightily about something with such great conviction, but at the end of the day, their cherished view is based on the necessity of this weasel word "seems." Seems is the ultimate weasel word.

My retort is simply, why bother? If people are that convinced, let them speak with unqualified conviction. And if weasel words such as "seems almost certain" are so necessary, why not just hold off judgment until there is greater clarity. What is the rush? A rush to false certainty and qualified pseudo-certainty? Guess what... that is what got us into Iraq.

I cannot strictly disagree with the assertion that "a recession seems almost certain", since so many people seem to believe it. Of course, belief is not a synonym for truth.

The only true certainty that we have right now is that the economy is sluggish and that the banking system has some problems. Beyond that, I am not sure that we need to worry about the technicalities of what actually constitutes a recession or not.

If all we have is a pseudo fact, something that seems true, what good is that to any of us? Maybe the answer is simply that it helps to sell newspapers.

-- Jack Krupansky