Thursday, April 03, 2008

How to win a recession-predicting contest

There is an interesting presentation about the nature of forecasting recessions in a blog post by Jeff Miller over on Seeking Alpha entitled "Ways to Win a Recession-Predicting Contest." It is not an end-all highly-technical description of the forecasting process, but it is entertaining and informative and easy reading.

Good luck.

Incidentally, the most recent "memo" from the Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is entitled "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure" is dated January 7, 2008. It does not appear to have any significant differences from other BCDC memos I have quoted from here, but it is the most recent.

-- Jack Krupansky


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