Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Q2 GDP tracking at +2.6% growth, Q1 likely to be revised upwards to +1.1%

I do not have access to the detailed reports, but Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) is now forecasting that Q2 real GDP growth is "tracking" to come in at +2.6% and that Q1 real GDP growth is tracking to be revised up to +1.1%. Not bad for a so-called "recession." Data from MA is one of the important sources used by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to mark the start and end months for recessions.

Clearly the U.S. economy is in fact in a "slowdown" and clearly there are a lot of people and businesses and investors feeling a lot of pain, but the evidence for a true, full-blown, outright recession simple is not there at this point in time. That is not to say that a recession might not be possible in the future or that significant negative events might not occur in the near future, but the simple fact is that the overall U.S. economy (which does include oil companies and commodities producers) is in fact continuing to grow.

-- Jack Krupansky

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