Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Industrial production rose 0.5% in June, but still down -0.8% from January peak

Industrial production, one of the five primary economic indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee uses to judge recession start and end dates, rose moderately in June (+0.5%) but is still off -0.8% from its peak in January. From an industrial perspective, the U.S. economy does in fact have one foot over the line separating recession from a growing economy. Fortunately, the U.S. economy is now primarily a service economy.

If you were to look at the U.S. economy from the perspective of strictly industrial production, you would conclude that the U.S. was in a mild recession, but the rise in June would also suggest that such a mild recession is not getting worse and may be moderating.

-- Jack Krupansky


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