Unemployment insurance initial claims at recessionary level for a fourth consecutive week

The weekly unemployment insurance initial claims number is above the 400,000 rule-of-thumb threshold that traditionally indication that the economy is recessionary. Initial claims have been above that 400,000 threshold for four consecutive weeks, plus a week at the end of June. Being only a rule-of-thumb this is not a slam-dunk indicator of a recession, but if we do not see some significant improvement over the next month, it will be difficult to deny that this data series is pointing in the direction of a recession.

To me, it still only feels as if we are only at the "edge" of a recession, and not fully off the cliff.

Nonetheless, employers are acting as if they are experiencing a recession.

The bottom line is that total net job losses are still relatively mild for a traditional recession.

-- Jack Krupansky