ECRI Weekly Leading Index indicator recovers modestly but remains deep in recession territory

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose modestly (+0.41% vs.-1.79% last week) after four consecutive weeks of very sharp decline, but its annualized growth rate fell sharply (to -25.9, a record low for its 60-year history of data, from -24.6), which is well below the flat line, suggesting that the economy will be struggling in the months ahead.

According to ECRI, "With WLI growth continuing to plumb new lows, not only is no economic recovery on the horizon, but the economy is falling off a cliff at its fastest pace in at least six decades."

The bottom line is that the ECRI WLI remains "flashing red." Alas, even the ECRI WLI is not a guaranteed, fool-proof economic indicator, especially when the data is mixed and there some amount of stimulus as well as potential problems in the pipeline.

My personal outlook is that: The U.S. economy is currently in a recession that started somewhere between December 2007 and June 2008, and currently shows no sign of an imminent end.

Some believe that the recession started in January or even last November, but there were pockets of strength even as recently as June GDP. By the same token, there were roots of weakness popping up in June 2007 and a financial mini-crisis in August 2007 related to housing clearly indicated that at least significant portions of the economy had already begun to crumble.

Although the current economic reports show significant weakness, there is also a vast amount of potential stimulus in the pipeline that could kick-start the economy within the next couple of months. The big bank bailout may start showing some fruit within a month.

Now that we are past all of the election year posturing, we will start seeing a lot more clarity in perspectives on the economy. But, it does now appear that Congress is unlikely to pass a new stimulus bill in November.

-- Jack Krupansky