High probability of another half-point Fed rate cut this month

Even though the next Fed FOMC meeting is not until December, Fed funds futures indicate a 96% chance of a half-point rate cut this month.

But... futures also indicate an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut by the end of March and a 100% chance of no-change by the end of June.

Further, futures indicate only a 80% chance of a half-point cut by the end of December, and only a 40% chance of a half-point cut in place by the end of February.

In other words, even if there is a short-term cut this month, people expect that the economy will bounce back by Spring and Summer, and that the Fed will take back any November and December cuts accordingly.

-- Jack Krupansky