ECRI Weekly Leading Index indicator rises very sharply but remains deep in recession territory

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose very sharply by +2.79% vs. -1.04% last week, but still near its worst level in 13 years, and its annualized growth rate rose moderately sharply to -28.5, but still near its record low for its 60-year history of data of -29.2 last week, which is well below the flat line, suggesting that the economy will be struggling in the months ahead.

According to ECRI, "Despite the first uptick in WLI growth since mid-September, it remains in a steep cyclical downtrend, suggesting that the recession will deepen further in the coming months."

The bottom line is that the ECRI WLI remains "flashing red." Alas, even the ECRI WLI is not a guaranteed, fool-proof economic indicator, especially when the data is mixed and there some amount of stimulus as well as potential problems in the pipeline.

My personal outlook is that: The U.S. economy that started in December 2007 and sharply accelerated in August is currently shows no sign of an imminent end.

Although the current economic reports show significant weakness, there is also a vast amount of potential stimulus in the pipeline that could kick-start the economy within the next couple of months.

-- Jack Krupansky