Monthly GDP for October fell by -1.2% (-13.0% annualized), Q4 tracking for a -6.5% annualized loss

Monthly real GDP, one of the five primary economic indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBER BCDC) uses to judge recession start and end dates, fell sharply in October (-1.2% or -13.0% annualized) , according to Macroeconomic Advisers (MA). The government does not publish GDP data at a monthly level, but the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee says that they refer to sources such as Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) and their MGDP data series. As Macroeconomic Advisers summarized GDP in September:

Monthly GDP declined 1.2% in October.  This was the fourth consecutive monthly decline following a peak in June.  Contributing to the decline in October were declines in PCE, spending on capital goods, construction, net exports, and others.  Nonfarm inventory investment made a small positive contribution.  The level of monthly GDP on October was 6.5% below the third-quarter average at an annual rate.  Flat readings on monthly GDP in November and December would imply a 6.5% annualized decline in the fourth quarter, identical to our latest official tracking forecast.

October marked a fourth consecutive monthly decline in real GDP off of the June peak and lower than the GDP level in June 2007.

Real GDP is -2.59% off of its June 2008 peak.

Annualized nominal GDP is running at $14.26 trillion. Annualized real GDP is running at $11.52 trillion.

If the NBER BCDC is the definitive expert on marking of recessions, MA is the definitive expert on measuring real GDP at the monthly level with their MGDP data series.

-- Jack Krupansky