ECRI Weekly Leading Index indicator rises sharply for a fourth week but remains deep in recession territory

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose sharply by +1.33% vs. +1.16% last week, and its annualized growth rate rose sharply to -26.8 vs. -28.7 last week, but is still near its record low for its 60-year history of data of -30.3 for the week ended December 12, 2008, which is well below the flat line, suggesting that the economy will be struggling in the months ahead.

According to ECRI, "While WLI growth has inched up over the past four weeks, it remains deep in negative territory, indicating that an economic recovery is not yet in sight."

The bottom line is that the ECRI WLI remains "flashing red." Alas, even the ECRI WLI is not a guaranteed, fool-proof economic indicator, especially when the data is mixed and there some amount of stimulus as well as potential problems in the pipeline.

My personal outlook is that: The recession of the U.S. economy that started in December 2007 and sharply accelerated in August 2008 currently shows no sign of an imminent end, but the decline may be starting to flatten out a little.

Although the current economic reports show significant weakness, there is also a vast amount of potential stimulus in the pipeline that could kick-start the economy within the next couple of months.

-- Jack Krupansky