Friday, June 19, 2009

ECRI Weekly Leading Index rises moderately, strongly suggesting that an end to the U.S. recession is now in clear sight

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose moderately by +0.73% vs. +1.64% last week, and its annualized growth rate rose very sharply from -3.5 to -0.6, well above its record low for its 60-year history of data of -29.7 for the week ended December 5, 2008, and although it remains slightly below the flat line, its distinct upturn does strongly suggest that recovery is on the way.

The WLI has risen for 13 of the past 14 weeks.

According to ECRI, "With WLI growth rocketing up almost 30 percentage points in six months, it's virtually pounding the table about the recession ending this summer."

My personal outlook is that: The recession of the U.S. economy that started in December 2007 and sharply accelerated in August 2008 finally looks as if recovery may be underway within the next few months.

Although a double-dip recession or "W" recovery cannot be discounted, it is becoming quite clear that the overall U.S. economy is on the verge of positive growth of spending and output, even if unemployment is still problematic.

Although the current economic reports continue to show significant weakness, there is also a vast amount of potential stimulus (especially from the Federal Reserve) in the pipeline that could kick-start the economy within the next couple of months. Please keep in mind that employment is not a leading indicator, so we could continue to see further employment losses or gains in unemployment even as recovery is underway.

-- Jack Krupansky

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home