Macroeconomic Advisers forecasts Q3 GDP at +2.3% and Q4 at +2.0%

As of Wednesday, November 17, 2010, Macroeconomic Advisers (MA), the group which provides the data on monthly GDP for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC), is now forecasting that annualized real GDP for Q3 will come in at +2.3% and Q4 at +2.0%. These are rather sluggish growth rates, still somewhat below the 2.5% rate that most people would consider the minimum for a healthy economy. Nonetheless, the economy is still growing and recovering from the financial crisis and recession of 2008.

Those "hoping" for a double-dip recession will continue to be disappointed.

The economic recovery  from the recession trough of June 2009 is now 17 months old, 1 month short of the duration of the recession itself.

According to my own calculations based on the MA data, the level of annualized real GDP for the month of September (the most recent month provided by MA) was –1.46% below the peak of GDP in January 2008. At its worst in the recession, in June 2009, GDP was down –3.66%. In other words, we have recovered 60% of the GDP loss. Despite lingering employment problems, that is a reasonably strong recovery of GDP.

-- Jack Krupansky