Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Macroeconomic Advisers now forecasting Q4 GDP growth of only +2.8%

Although the economic data today was reasonably decent (relative to concerns of a possible recession), it still wasn't as strong as a normal healthy quarter. In fact, Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) just adjusted their Q4 GDP forecast to be annualized real growth of only +2.8% compared to their recent forecast of +3.2%. GDP growth of 2.8% is at the lower bound of the "healthy" range for a growing economy. That's not a bad thing, but not great and does leave the U.S. economy vulnerable should any significant economic shock occur (like a big meltdown of Europe.)

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