Unemployment initial claims declined, again

The good economic news this morning is that unemployment initial claims declined again, below the 400,000 recession threshold for a second week in a row. And, the 4-week moving average is now finally back below 400,000 as well, albeit barely. This continues the recent trend, but it remains to be seen whether the declines continue and strengthen. And, we need to see the moving average move well under the recession threshold, not just hovering near it. Also, just because the rate of unemployment growth slows does not automatically mean that employment growth will strengthen significantly any time soon. Still, this latest data is promising and doesn't hint at any emerging new recession.

-- Jack Krupansky