Monday, December 12, 2011

Q4 GDP now tracking for annualized real growth of +3.7%

I missed it Friday, but Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) is now forecasting Q4 annualized real GDP growth of +3.7% as of 12/9, up from their most recent forecast of +3.0% on 12/5. This is great news, but still doesn't clue us in as to how the economy might do in 2012 since there is significant volatility in GDP from quarter to quarter so that no quarter gives you a clue as to the next or any future quarter, even in the best of economic times.
They will likely update their forecast a few more times before the official GDP report is issued in late January. Their last forecast before the official report is usually fairly accurate (+/- 0.3.)


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