Macroeconomic Advisers ups Q1 GDP forecast to +3.2%, but lowers Q2 to +2.3%

Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) has once again raised its Q1 annualized real GDP forecast, to +3.2% from +3.1% last week, but they also once again lowered their Q2 forecast, to +2.3% from +2.4%.

 

Reemphasizing what I said last week, we already knew that Q1 was semi-decent anyway, and this latest forecast only underlines the concern about a deceleration in Q2, and uncertainty about Q3 and beyond.

 

That said, there is in principle nothing alarming about quarter-to-quarter volatility of GDP. That is perfectly normal. And, as we all know, a single data point in a data series does not establish a trend.

-- Jack Krupansky