Sunday, March 30, 2014

Still on track for starting a new bullish leg for NASDAQ

Although NASDAQ was superficially a bit of a disappointment on Friday with such a meager 5-point gain, especially after being up so strongly early in the session, the really good news is that it bounced back from a deficit, and stayed positive despite significant "sell into any rally" sentiment as well as the traditional tendency for short-term speculators to dump stocks on a Friday before a weekend when geopolitical risks are in play.
 
The good news on the Ukraine front is that the Russians are moving reasonably cautiously, not making any additional antagonistic moves, and actually talking with a reasonably conciliatory tone.
 
This week starts a new month on Tuesday, so we will have a fresh pair of ISM reports and a fresh employment report for the markets to digest.
 
Unless some new event pops up on the radar, we are still on track to start a new bullish leg for NASDAQ any day now. Last Wednesday was the main capitulation, Thursday was a little after shock, and Friday was an initial confirmation that the bottom for this mini-correction is very likely in place. That's not an absolute guarantee, but as close as you can get to one in the stock markets.
 
Don't expect any great clarity from the markets this week, just that NASDAQ should close the week at least modestly higher. There is still plenty of huff-and-puff bearish sentiment out there, and opportunistic hedge funds will want to see a little more clear proof that the bottom is in place before rushing back into the market.
 
-- Jack Krupansky

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