Monday, June 30, 2014

NASDAQ poised to extend or consolidate its breakout

NASDAQ has sort-of secured a breakout above the near-term March peak, albeit a sloppy and still weak one. NASDAQ is still a little less than 1% above the March peak. I'd like to see a clear 1% to 2% for at least two weeks before calling an all clear.
 
The psychological 4,400 level is right in front of us. Pushing above it could either kick off a true breakout or cause some consolidation to go back and test support a bit more before the real breakout.
 
On the other hand, the nature of the recent rally has been more of a "climb the wall of worry" nature, so we could simply see some marginal, incremental gains and losses for a considerable period of time.
 
Futures are up modestly, indicating a positive bias, but once again we will watch carefully to see if short-term speculators either pile onto a rally, sell into any rally, or buy any dip. In other words, whether they are taking a "risk on" or "risk off" bias.
 
-- Jack Krupansky

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