Friday, October 10, 2014

NASDAQ still grappling with the lower edge of the broader trading range

NASDAQ is still "desperately flirting" with the lower edge of the broader trading range, demarcated by the August low and the March peak. We're seeing dramatic whipsaw volatility as traders and short-term speculators can't make up their minds and make a commitment to either an outright breakdown and full-blown correction or to merely trade back higher into the broader trading range. The good news is that this volatility also has the effect of "creating a base" for a new "up-leg". Whether NASDAQ stabilizes in the next day or two or takes a full week or two or the rest of the month (which would put the Fed meeting behind us) is of course unknown, but at least so far this is all simply trading range behavior.
As a side note, the low and close for the day on Thursday were still higher than the intraday low on Wednesday. Interesting. But consistent with mere trading range volatility.
NASDAQ futures are down strongly, suggesting a big dip at the open, but whether people pile on for a deeper sell-off after the open or start buying the dips during the day remains to be seen.
And it is a Friday, so some fraction of speculators will tend to close out positions ahead of the weekend when anything can happen. If those are net short positions, then we could see a nice recovery bounce... or not.
In any case, this is all simply short-term trading and speculative activity and not any indication of where the markets might be headed in the months ahead.
-- Jack Krupansky


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