Monday, December 29, 2014

NASDAQ poised to test whether breakout has legs or will consolidate and possibly reverse

It was certainly nice to see NASDAQ score another closing peak and intra-day high for the year on Friday as well as closing above the psychological 4800 level for the first time since the dot-com days, but merely "touching" a new high is a weak indicator of whether that new peak will hold and turn into a new leg up for the market. And all of this is happening during the slow trading of the holiday season, so it is all subject to revision if not outright reversal when all of the big dogs and heavy hitters get back to their desks after the holidays in the first full week of January.

NASDAQ futures are down modestly, suggesting that stocks could take a "little breather" with a modest dip at the open, but whether a significant sell-off materializes after that initial dip or whether we see people buying on the dip is a coin flip. A little consolidation here would be quite understandable, but a continuation of the Santa Claus rally and end of year window dressing are also understandable and equally likely.

I'll continue to be raising my cash reserves on advances, including sell on recent dip purchases on 5% gains.

I'm also making a list of fresh stocks to buy in 2015, preferably on dips, as well as reviewing my overall asset allocation strategy.

Oil (OIL) remains locked in a trading range (since December 16th), hovering around $55 with the $60 camp of speculators and the $50 (and $40!) camp of speculators virtually completely balanced in a classic tug of war. News can shift the balance somewhat, but this is now more of a battle of wills between opposing speculative views than anything about actual fundamentals. Sure, we could see $50 or even $40, but $60 is just as likely.

-- Jack Krupansky

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