Friday, January 23, 2015

NASDAQ poised for a breather and a little consolidation

Okay, we've had a nice with NASDAQ run since the bottom last Friday, but at some point we need to see some consolidation before a further advance to assure people that we have a solid foundation for another leg up. Whether consolidation happens today or Monday or Tuesday is unknown, but somewhere in here it can be expected. In short, we are overdue for a little breather.

We can give credit to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi for a fair fraction of the advance yesterday. His quantitative easing monetary policy announcement probably caused some short covering. The down side is that these shorts could return to the market soon enough.

NASDAQ futures are up modestly, indicating a modest pop at the open, but it is a coin flip whether people build on that pop for a strong new leg of the advance, or whether they sell into any rally remains a coin flip. It's also a Friday ahead of a weekend, when anything can happen (including the election in Greece which could soothe or trouble Europe some more), so some fraction of speculators are likely to close out positions in advance of the weekend. Whether they are net long and will sell or are net short and with buy is unknown.

I don't think I'll be getting an allocation of the Box (BOX) IPO, so I plan on buying shares at the open. Just a modest position, and then add to it on dips.

Oil (OIL) continues its range trading as it continues to seek its bottom, but without any enthusiasm this week for either a major bullish or a major bearish move. The death of the Saudi king will juice volatility, but shouldn't be a game-changer.

-- Jack Krupansky


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