Monday, February 23, 2015

NASDAQ poised for both a new 1-year high and more consolidation

NASDAQ still has some lingering upwards momentum that can indeed carry it to yet another 1-year (and 14-year) high, but will face a lot of consolidation in the process. Even if a new high is reached, market breadth will be lousy and quite a few stocks will decline even as the overall index rises. Which stocks are hot or not will vary widely on a daily basis. The NASDAQ 5000 psychological level and a fresh all-time high are indeed close, but may be not so close until people have exhausted their need to see hot stocks consolidate a fair amount. IOW, expect plenty of volatility.

NASDAQ futures are up modestly, indicating a modest rise at the open, but without a lot of enthusiasm or commitment. And as usual, we can't use the opening move as a reliable indicator of how trading will play out for the rest of the day. A new 1-year closing high is very possible, but by no means a slam dunk. Volatility on the other hand is a slam dunk.

Greece, Ukraine/Russia, and oil remain quite volatile. Anxiety will remain high, despite occasional flashes of optimism that quickly evaporate, but the net impact on the U.S. economy and U.S. stocks will be minimal.

-- Jack Krupansky

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