Monday, January 09, 2006

Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn speaking on the outlok for 2006

Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn said on Monday in a speech entitled "Now Is the Time to Strengthen Our Economic Foundation" that

Given the steady diet of “measured” rate hikes the Fed has provided in the past year and a half, many of you may be wondering when enough is enough. Let me first respond by saying, the closer we get, the less explicit we can be on that point. One reason is that we don’t yet know the full economic effect of the policy moves we have already made. So in the months ahead, we’ll have to watch the data very carefully to make sure that growth is still on track and inflation expectations are well anchored.

and

...let me point to a phrase from our December meeting minutes, which were released last week. In those minutes, we said that in looking ahead “the number of additional firming steps required probably would not be large.” While our policy direction has been quite clear over the past 18 months, in the less certain period ahead it’s my personal opinion that as policy makers we should resist the temptation to say more than we know at any given time. And so I think it’s appropriate that our post-meeting statements have come with the caveat that “the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed.

(My emphasis)

Hmm... "months ahead", would seem to imply that this is not the final month of the rate hike campaign. And "period ahead" sounds like more than this month as well.

The important point is that he didn't suggest that the economy was about to experience a significant slowdown. Specifically, he said that

I think 2006 should bring us another year of solid expansion, with perhaps a slightly different mix of economic factors.

-- Jack Krupansky

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