Econ-data: ECRI Weekly Leading Index registered a moderately sharp rise

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index registered a moderately sharp rise (+0.8 to 137.7 vs. +0.9 last week), and the six-month smoothed growth rate rose moderately sharply (+0.8% vs. +0.4% last week) and remains modestly above neutral (+2.9%). This was a positive report, but continues to suggest that the economy is "fluttering", undecided about whether to weaken or reaccelerate. I would expect the ongoing recovery to continue to limp along in the coming months (and years). The six-month smoothed monthly WLI growth rate actually declined modestly from +1.5% to +1.3%. We are still in a relative "soft patch", at least in the sense that the growth rate of the economy is not accelerating at a significant pace.

Not everybody recognizes it, but we are still in the recovery phase of an extended business cycle, and it will take another couple of years before the economy is back up to to its true cruising speed.

You can also read our Stock Market Outlook for 2006 and our Daily Stock Market Commentary.

-- Jack Krupansky