Has the price of oil peaked?

Once again, it may or may not be too early to call the end of the recent commodities boom or bull market. Nonetheless, it is quite clear that commodities are in a significant correction off of their recent peak. And with people expecting the economy to cool off a bit over the next year, there would not seem to be any significant fundamental drivers to push commodities to new market highs. Further, with super-safe Treasury securities yielding around 5%, it is difficult to posit a robust investment thesis for putting fresh money to work in commodities speculation.

Still, it is always very difficult to "call" the top of any market.

Given how far commodities have fallen, a classic "dead-cat" bounce is also to be expected at some point. Traders and speculators and diehard commodities bulls will continue to try to push commodities prices back up whenever downwards momentum peters out.

To put the price of crude oil in perspective, the spot price of crude oil is roughly where it was a year ago.

To answer the question, my feeling at this point is that the price of oil has peaked.

-- Jack Krupansky