Durable goods orders volatility

The durable goods orders report that came out this past week was particularly weak, but people who follow these reports seriously (as opposed to traders and short-term speculators who simply react to headlines that sound negative) know that there is a lot of month-to-month volatility and that this particular data series is very volatile. A one-month change in durable goods does not indicate a trend or change of trend. The basic problem with this data series is that most big-ticket durable goods are not purchased on a regular monthly basis.

Yes, we should keep an eye on this report, but there has not been a downwards trend established at this stage of the game.

-- Jack Krupansky