Saturday, December 29, 2007

Intrade odds for recession in 2008 at 47%

The Intrade Prediction Market pegs the odds of a U.S. recession in 2008 at 47%.

In other words, people are quite worried that a recession is possible, but not so worried that they consider it the likely scenario (50% or higher.)

Personally, I would still put the odds down around 25% (1 in 4 chance.)

-- Jack Krupansky

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