Robert Scoble wants to know if we are in a recession

Uber-blogger Robert Scoble wants to know if "we" are in a recession. Sidestepping the issue of whether "we" is the entire world or simply the U.S., here is my response:

Technically, the U.S. economy is probably not in a formal recession per se, regardless of whether you use the popular two-quarter negative real GDP informal definition or the more robust NBER definition.

That said, clearly there are a lot of middle class families that are suffering from significant “economic distress.”

Unfortunately, no matter how short (or long) the formal “recession” lasts (if it occurs at all), the economic distress of the middle class will persist.

Even a moderate economic “slowdown”, which we are obviously in the middle of even if we are not in a formal recession, can cause significant economic distress for a significant fraction of the population. Not to mention the emotional stress of constantly being bombarded with messages of doom and gloom from the media even if your own situation is actually reasonably solid. The overall economic message coming from the media right now is that if you are not worrying about a recession, you should be worried.

So, there are two bottom lines here:

1) The economic distress of the middle class is not linked to whether a formal recession is underway.

2)”Fixing” the formal recession (if it even exists at all) will not fix the economic distress of the middle class.

Be clear, is your question about a formal recession per se, or simply whether there is enough of a slowdown in growth that significant numbers of people are feeling pain?

Health care “reform” (including care for chronic conditions such as you mention) obviously needs to be a key part of relieving the economic distress of the middle class. Debating whether we are or aren’t in a formal recession is orthogonal to addressing such social issues.

– Jack Krupansky

I continue to feel that there is only a 1 in 4 chance of us seeing a "formal" recession this year.

-- Jack Krupansky