No sign of recession on the unemployment insurance claims front

The latest weekly unemployment insurance claims report continues to indicate that the economy is sluggish but not outright recessionary. Initial claims are at 356,000 (a decline from last week), well below the 400,000 rule of thumb threshold for recession, and only moderately above the year-ago level of 314,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims did tick up again, but is still only moderately above the level of a year ago.

Continuing claims ticked up, but at 2.1% are not dramatically higher than the year-ago level of 1.9%.

The bottom line is that if you are trying to prove that we are in a recession or "clearly" headed for one, you will will have to look somewhere else than the weekly unemployment insurance claims report.

This report would argue that we are going through more of a moderate "adjustment" in the economy and not headed into a deep and prolonged recession as some are strongly suggesting.

-- Jack Krupansky