Friday, May 16, 2008

What is Carl Icahn up to with Yahoo?

It may take me a while longer to figure out exactly what Carl Icahn is really up to with Yahoo. Given Yahoo's current price, I simply do not see any significant upside for any supposed new deal with Microsoft. I think Microsoft now realizes that Yahoo was not a great deal at $33 and not even at $31. Maybe Yahoo would be a good deal at $25 or $20 or even $15, but that would not represent upside for Icahn. Maybe he is simply using the "hint" of a new deal with Microsoft as a ploy for some other combination with Yahoo. Maybe he intends to completely overhaul upper management and then dismember Yahoo and sell its pieces for more than the current whole. Or, maybe he is imply angling for a little old-fashioned greenmail. Or, whatever. But, I do not think a restart of the old Microsoft deal is in the cards at anything close to $33 per share.

In short, I still do not know what Icahn is up to, but a simple reboot of the abandoned Microsoft deal is the loweest probability option at this stage.

-- Jack Krupansky


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