Monday, October 06, 2008

Great news: crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices continue to slide

As disappointing as the stock market weakness is, it was quite heartening to see crude oil futures back under $90 and wholesale gasoline back under $2.10. The November NYMEX crude futures is at $88.51. The October RBOB unleaded gasoline futures is at $2.0840, which implies a retail price of $2.68 to $2.73 per gallon, which is about 80 cents below the current AAA national average of $3.504 It may take a few weeks for consumers and businesses to see these declines in their wallets and pocketbooks, but they are on the way.

I think part of the decline in commodities is caused by hedge funds facing redemptions and banks needing to raise more liquid capital.

Maybe we really are finally passing the tipping point for commodities speculation, the point when hedge funds and the proprietary in-house trading desks at banks can no longer throw vast piles of cash at commodities with wild abandon.

Incidentally, Corn futures are 47% off their peak price in June, wheat futures are 54% off their peak price in March, soybeans are 44% off their peak price in early July, and milk is 21% off its peak price in June. This will all mean good news for consumers who were feeling pressured by rising food prices.

There are plenty of things to be concerned about in the current financial crisis, but falling commodities prices is at least something to cheer about.

-- Jack Krupansky

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