Thursday, January 29, 2009

Q4 GDP wait

Everybody is anxiously awaiting for the advance report on real GDP growth in Q4 of 2008, due out Friday morning, which is forecast by Macroeconomic Advisers to be a decline of -5.5%. They are also forecasting another big decline of -4.2% in Q1.

With the U.S. economy being as dynamic as it is, on both the up and down sides, I have no reason to challenge the -5.5% number. Still, the actual number could be somewhat higher or even somewhat lower. Also, this is the "advance" report, with two revisions, the "preliminary" revision and the "final" revision, to be issued in the coming two months.

-- Jack Krupansky


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