Macroeconomic Advisers forecasts Q4 GDP at +3.0%

As of Wednesday, December 15, 2010, Macroeconomic Advisers (MA), the group which provides the data on monthly GDP used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC), is forecasting that annualized real GDP for Q4 will come in at +3.0%. Q3 GDP came in at +2.5%. This is still at the low end of minimally acceptable economic growth for a healthy economy. Nonetheless, the economy is still growing and recovering from the financial crisis and recession of 2008.

Those "hoping" for a double-dip recession will continue to be disappointed.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan rubbed salt into the wounds of the double-dippers by telling Bloomberg that "The U.S. economy unquestionably has some momentum. The fourth quarter looks good. The growth rate could be 3.5 percent or more" for the final quarter of this year." Greenspan also told Bloomberg that he expected GDP growth of 3% to 3.5% in 2011.

The economic recovery  from the recession trough of June 2009 is now 18 months old, the duration of the recession itself.

Despite the progress of the recovery, we still have a long way to go  to get to full health with most of the 8 million workers who lost their jobs in the recession still looking for work. I continue to refer to this as a "mini-depression" even though the recession itself is long over. It could be five to ten years before all of those workers have returned to productive participation in the economy.

-- Jack Krupansky