The budget is coming, the federal budget is coming!

Usually I don't get very excited when the federal budget is issue, but this year is different as a result of the dramatic ballooning of the budget deficit and the accumulated debt. This could well be a watershed year, when we turn the corner in one of two directions: either to start getting the deficit under control (that's good) or whether it becomes clear that we are never going to get it under control (that's very bad.) I lean towards expecting the former. In any case, tomorrow is the day.

Here is the official announcement for the U.S. government budget for fiscal year 2012:

GPO will provide public access to the Budget at no cost at www.fdsys.gov beginning at 10:30 a.m. Monday, February 14, 2011.

(Yeah, I know... Happy Valentine's Day from your favorite government.)

Oh, and I do believe that that is east-coast time.

Actually, this won't be the final budget, just the opening salvo from the White House. Congress and vast legions of analysts, journalists, and pundits are eagerly awaiting its arrival and stand ready to pick it to pieces like so many vultures.

The most juicy awaited tidbit is the initial projection of the deficit for 2012.

The initial projection for revenues in 2012 is also a key concern. There is no way to know what government receipts will really be until businesses and individuals pay taxes on their own revenues and incomes throughout the year. How many businesses still have tax losses (deductions) from the recession? No idea. What will business sales be in 2012? No idea. How many of the eight million people who lost jobs in the recession will be back at work and paying taxes? No idea -- until FY 2012 is over. All we will have tomorrow is a seat of the pants guesstimate from the White House. But as they used to say when I was a kid, "Close enough for government work."

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives will then propose its return opening salvo of cuts to reduce the deficit even further.

Then there will be a lot of posturing on both sides, a lot of back and forth, and eventually the White House and Republican leaders will sit down and negotiate the real budget for FY 2012 which starts on October 1, 2011.

The "battle" over raising the national debt ceiling will be a mere side show to the actual budget negotiations.

-- Jack Krupansky