A wasted day for the stock market

I'm not sure why they bother to keep the stock market open on a Friday after a holiday. Most of the major players take the whole long weekend off anyway, if not the entire week, so whatever happens in the markets on such a Friday doesn't really reflect the true market anyway. Still, it is good to have a slow day once in a while to let people catch up without all the mad frenzy that frequently fills the markets.

 

People are busy trying to judge how well Holiday spending will be going, but with too little data to come to a reliable conclusion. By Monday we'll have a "read" on how retail shopping is going today (and last night) and tomorrow. I saw a very long line (hundreds) for Toys"R"Us in Times Square last night (Thanksgiving Day) around 9 PM. There was a line at BestBuy at the same time.

 

To me, the critical issue is not holiday shopping per se, but the underlying economic and business fundamentals in the retail sector that are supporting this short retail shopping period, such as number of temporary jobs created, for how long, for what compensation and benefits, as well as any net change in non-seasonal retail jobs. And most significantly, how robust a "tail" is left on the retail sector going into the new year. In other words, do we just have a sharp binge and then the retail contracts dramatically, or will the retail sector actually show some ongoing life through the winter and into the spring. That will be a key factor in whether we lapse back into a new recession.

-- Jack Krupansky