Waiting for Q4 GDP report - Macroeconomic Advisers forecast is 3.1%

The initial estimate for Q4 2011 GDP is due out in about an hour. Meanwhile, I just checked and the forecast from Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) from yesterday was for annualized real GDP growth of +3.1%. That was up slightly from their reduced forecast of +3.0% from last week. Usually, MA comes in within 0.2% of the headline official number, but this is just the initial, "advance" report and will be revised next month and again in March.

 

MA is forecasting Q1 2012 GDP growth of +1.9%. That is up slightly from their reduced forecast from last week, but that "1" handle is still a bit concerting. There is still no sign or hint of an imminent recession, but one has to wonder if that "1" handle will simply be a short-term bump or a more persistent deceleration that could lead to recession.

-- Jack Krupansky