Friday, January 27, 2012

Waiting for Q4 GDP report - Macroeconomic Advisers forecast is 3.1%

The initial estimate for Q4 2011 GDP is due out in about an hour. Meanwhile, I just checked and the forecast from Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) from yesterday was for annualized real GDP growth of +3.1%. That was up slightly from their reduced forecast of +3.0% from last week. Usually, MA comes in within 0.2% of the headline official number, but this is just the initial, "advance" report and will be revised next month and again in March.
MA is forecasting Q1 2012 GDP growth of +1.9%. That is up slightly from their reduced forecast from last week, but that "1" handle is still a bit concerting. There is still no sign or hint of an imminent recession, but one has to wonder if that "1" handle will simply be a short-term bump or a more persistent deceleration that could lead to recession.


At 8:44 PM EST , Anonymous QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 5 DOLLARS said...

3.1% is nothing to brag about we need 4% per quarter to make a real dent in unemployment.


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