Friday, April 27, 2012

Q1 GDP shortfall

GDP reports tend to get revised upwards, sometimes very significantly, so I wouldn't read too much into the lackluster +2.2% Q1 growth rate, even though the forecast had been for +3.2%. Sometimes it is simply a matter of which of two quarters spending near the end of a quarter gets assigned to, so a shortfall in Q1 may turn into a windfall in Q2. And, the initial estimate (which today's report is) usually has a fair amount of interpolated estimation due to incomplete data that will gradually get turned into a solid number as the months tick by.
 
Next week we'll look to an update from Macroeconomic Advisers (MA), the buys who had the +3.2% forecast.

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