Thursday, November 07, 2013

Twitter IPO survives the day

Despite some lingering concerns about how the Twitter IPO might play out, it all seemed to work out. Besides the fact that so many of us missed out on the IPO itself, not to mention the somewhat overvalued offering price, the only real downer was that the stock closed the day down from its opening price. Sure, the opening was was up relative to the offering price, from $26 to $45.10, but TWTR closed the day at $44.90, down 20 cents from the $45.10 opening price which was the earliest price available for the general public.
 
So, sure, it was a "great" day for Wall Street insiders, but a mediocre day for the general public and retail investors. I mean, $45.10 really is a gross overvaluation for the company, and a decline of 20 cents is not a great first day of trading.
 
Oh, and I see that TWTR is down 24 cents in extended trading.
 
All of that said, this first day tells us very little about how the stock might trade in the coming days and weeks. Three to six months from now, I expect that progress on the revenue and earnings fronts will dictate a lot of the stock action.
 
I made only one modest purchase of TWTR today, keeping most of my powder dry, so I wouldn't mind if TWTR ended up like Facebook, with lots of volatility and big dips to buy at much cheaper prices than the actual IPO offering.
 
My other limit order at $35 expired without getting filled, as expected.
 
Interesting... My Fidelity account summary shows "n/a" for the price and value of my TWTR position. Sigh.
 
Overall, I'm reasonably "okay" with my initial Twitter position. Longer term I want a much larger position, but I it needs to be on more reasonable pricing. Bring on the dips!
 
 
-- Jack Krupansky

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