Tuesday, April 15, 2014

The struggle continues, with no clear trend

The short-term struggle between the bullish and bearish short-term speculators continues, with no clarity of the short-term trend. The gain for NASDAQ on Monday was quite welcome, but could just as easily merely be a classic dead-cat bounce ("even a dead cat can bounce") as a true trend reversal. Similarly, neither a positive nor negative move today will in any way be truly definitive in terms of a clear trend. We'll have to see where things are in a week or so.
 
I suspect that as the flood of quarterly reports begin, we will see more clarity as to whether people are either relieved that the results were not worse or disappointment that the results weren't better. As of right now, a lot of cynicism is baked into expectations, so a relief rally is more likely than not.
 
Meanwhile the back and forth of the tug of war between the bulls and bears continues. Flip a coin as to whether NASDAQ will be up or down in 15 minutes.
 
-- Jack Krupansky

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