Wednesday, December 31, 2014

NASDAQ wobbling into the end of the year

NASDAQ is struggling to figure out whether it is simply consolidating and basing for the next leg up or in the process of rolling over and reversing before heading back down in the current trading range. My bet is on some minor consolidation, but all bets are off during a slow-trading holiday week.

NASDAQ futures are up modestly, indicating a small pop at the open, but whether people build on that or sell into it any rallies is a coin flip.

Oil (OIL) is testing whether a run down to $50 might pan out, but this is during a slow trading holiday week, so any trend won't be apparent until we get to the end of next week.

I'm working on my asset allocation and trading plan for 2015 - how to bet on long-term growth but capitalize on market volatility as well.

Rising interest rates in 2015? CME futures now indicate a 24% chance of liftoff in June and a 51% chance in July and a 67% chance in September. IOW, easily more than a full six months of low fed rates.

-- Jack Krupansky

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